Research // Economics
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August 2025
Submission to the Gas Market Review
Australia Institute research has long documented the comprehensive failure of government policies to prioritise the interests of Australians over multinational gas exporters. Our view is that the incremental technocratic policies of successive governments to solve these issues have failed, and that a fresh approach is needed. The ACTU’s proposal for a 25% tax on gas
Three ways Australia can tax wealth better
Australia taxes wealth very lightly. Imposing a 2% wealth tax on those with net assets over $5 million, an inheritance tax on large estates, and scrapping the CGT discount could raise $70 billion per year.
Submission to the Economic Reform Roundtable
Our submission focuses primarily on the role tax reform should play in the productivity agenda. Tax is an essential element of promoting productivity, primarily because: Additional revenue is required to make productivity-enhancing investments in education, health, infrastructure and other sectors of the economy; Existing tax settings allow for (and in some ways facilitate) growing inequality,
Climate and the Economic Reform Roundtable
The upcoming roundtable appears set to ignore climate change and its impact on the economy. Climate change is already driving up the cost-of-living, and this is only likely to get worse. Climate change will substantially harm productivity, particularly if action is not taken to mitigate its extent and adapt to its impacts.
Solving the crisis: Raising the living standards of Australian workers
Productivity might be the word on everyone’s lips in the lead up to the Albanese Government’s Economic Reform Roundtable however weak productivity isn’t the cause of many of the problems experience by workers in Australia today nor is increasing productivity the solution. Rapid inflation after the pandemic, combined with rising interest rates and slow wage
July 2025
Productivity in the Real World
Claims that Australia faces a productivity crisis are overblown. Weak productivity didn’t cause the current problems facing Australian workers (falling real wages, high interest rates, unaffordability of essentials like housing and energy). Nor will higher productivity fix these problems. Faith that higher productivity will automatically trickle down, to be shared by all workers, is unfounded.
Tasmanian budget: Raising revenue right
The deterioration of the Tasmanian budget means that net debt is expected to reach $10 billion by 2027-28. This paper outlines how the state could increase revenue by auctioning salmon licences, reforming gambling taxes, increasing mineral royalties, and increasing motor vehicle stamp duties and registration fees. If changes to the GST were also made, $11.4
April 2025
The curious incident of low wages growth
A new Carmichael Centre report by David Peetz considers why wages growth has been so low, despite a tight labour market and a brief surge in inflation. Asking why has there been no wages explosion, Peetz finds the answer lies in loss of power. The report documents how workers have lost power in the past
Working from Home, Not a Problem
More than one in three workers in Australia usually work from home at least some of the week. Working from home has become an established working arrangement for many employees in jobs where it is possible to work remotely. Yet, there is strong opposition from some employers to working from home and regular reports of
The Continuing Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation
Updated analysis by the by the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute reveals that a fair and appropriate increase to the minimum wage, and accompanying increases to award rates, would not have a significant effect on inflation. The analysis examines the correlation between minimum wage increases and inflation going back to 1990, and finds no consistent link between minimum wage increases and inflation. It also reveals that such an increase to award wages could be met with only a small reduction in profit margins.
March 2025
Budget briefing paper 2025-2026
The Centre for Future Work’s research team has analysed the Commonwealth Government’s budget. As expected with a Federal election looming, the budget is not a horror one of austerity. However, the 2025-2026 budget is characterised by the absence of any significant initiatives. There is very little in this budget that is new other than the
February 2025
Briefing Paper: Restoring public sector capability through investment in public service employees
The Australian Public Service (APS) is responsible for delivering some of the most crucial social services to all Australians. The APS workforce includes employees who deliver frontline services like in Medicare and Centrelink, those who administer the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), and those who assist service personnel and veterans via Veterans Affairs. These are
January 2025
The Limits of CGE Modelling
Economic modelling is a central element of economic and policy debate in Australia. Yet the assumptions that underpin the most commonly used macroeconomic models are rarely discussed even though they fundamentally influence model results. Too often, models are used as a tool of persuasion rather than providing objective policy advice.
Life Savers Without Life Savings
Firefighters and paramedics save lives, protect us from the ravages of fire, and ensure the sick and injured receive the medical treatment they need. However, after a working life protecting others, these emergency workers face substantial risk of having inadequate retirement incomes. Firefighters and paramedics are regularly compelled to retire early due to particular barriers
December 2024
Submission to Industrial Relations Victoria Inquiry on Restricting Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) in Workplace Sexual Harassment Cases
It is generally reported that NDAs can benefit victim-survivors by providing anonymity and privacy where that is the victim-survivor’s choice. However, it is also reported that power imbalances between victim-survivors on the one hand and perpetrators and employers/organisation on the other have left workers feeling they had little choice but to sign NDAs. NDAs have
Economic Prosperity, Public Sector Restraint
New report contrasts South Australia’s economic progress with continued public sector wage restraint By many measures, South Australia has enjoyed the strongest economy of any state in Australia. Its economic growth has been faster in recent years than any state – and in per capita terms, its prosperity has improved twice as fast as the
November 2024
Taking up the Right to Disconnect? Unsatisfactory Working Hours and Unpaid Overtime
This year marks the sixteenth annual Go Home on Time Day (GHOTD), an initiative of the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute, that shines a spotlight on the maldistribution of working hours and the scale of unpaid overtime worked by Australians. The Australian labour market has remained relatively strong over 2024 although interest
October 2024
Doing it Tough
This report documents the results of a recent survey of Australian adults regarding their experience of the cost of living crisis. Australian workers are doing it tough. Costs are increasing faster than wages and incomes. Those with less are doing it the toughest.
An Industrial Strategy for Domestic Manufacturing of Onshore and Offshore Wind Energy Towers and Equipment
Australia could create more than 4300 quality direct jobs by making its own wind towers instead of importing them, according to new research by the Centre for Future Work. At present, all wind towers installed in Australia are imported from overseas with most coming from China.
Leaving Money on the Table: Foregone Economic Gains from Continued SRS Underfunding
The Commonwealth government’s current offer to fund public schools to just 22.5% of the agreed Schooling Resource Standard would leave much of the current school funding shortfall unrepaired. This would squander many of the economic benefits that would otherwise result from full public school funding. Based on disaggregation of previous estimates of the economic benefits generated by stronger school funding and hence scholastic outcomes, we estimate the failure to fulfil the 25% Commonwealth contribution required for full SRS funding would ultimately forego GDP gains of $3.5 to $5 billion per year, and impose net fiscal costs on government (all levels) of $0.6 to $1.5 billion per year.
August 2024
No Blood – No Job
Organisations in Australia are using blood analysis as a means of screening future employees for ‘health risks’ that they allege may impact on their performance of work. Collecting sensitive information from blood analysis is restricted under Australia’s privacy laws. This is because the mishandling of this information can have a substantial detrimental impact on those
July 2024
Solid Foundations, Bright Future
New South Wales has one of the most prosperous and productive economies in Australia, with a diverse base of economic activity and strong labour market. However, years of austerity have hollowed out its public sector, creating one of the proportionally smallest state public sectors in the country in terms of both economic activity and employment.
Submission to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Employment, Education and Training Inquiry into the Digital Transformation of Workplaces
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the way we work and the jobs we do. AI innovations in workplaces can have positive benefits, including through productivity gains. However, AI applications can also have significant risks for workers and for job quality. AI applications, including automated decision making, are not neutral processes. Software can be designed and
Employee voice and new rights for workplace union delegates
A workplace delegate is a worker chosen to represent workers who are union members in dealings with management. Delegates are volunteers who perform their union duties on an unpaid basis in addition to their normal job at work. Delegates spend their time undertaking vital tasks for workplace representation.
May 2024
Budget 2024-25: Resists Austerity, Reduces Inflation, Targets Wage Gains
Commonwealth Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered his 2024-25 budget to Parliament. While it booked a surplus for 2023-24 (the second consecutive surplus), it increased total spending for future years, and forecasts continued small deficits. In the wake of the economic slowdown resulting from RBA interest rate hikes, this new spending is needed and appropriate.
March 2024
The Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation
A significant increase to the minimum wage, and accompanying increases to award rates, would not have a significant effect on inflation, according to new analysis by the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute.
The analysis examines the correlation between minimum wage increases and inflation going back to 1997, and it finds no consistent link between minimum wage increases and inflation.
Submission to the Reserve Bank Reforms 2023 bill
The Australia Institute argued that the RBA review’s proposal to remove the Australian Parliament’s power to override the RBA on monetary policy is wrong.
Polling – Right to Disconnect
Survey respondents were asked if they would support or oppose the federal government legislating a right to disconnect that would direct employers to avoid contacting workers outside of work hours, unless in an emergency.
Submission to the Fair Work Commission Modern Award Review 2023-2024, Work and Care
The Fair Work Commission’s Review of Modern Awards 2023-24 is considering the impact of workplace relations settings on work and care. This submission argues for good quality, secure part-time jobs to achieve more gender-equitable sharing of care and to support women’s full economic participation.
Professionalising the Aged Care Workforce
This paper presents the case for an aged care worker registration and accreditation scheme